Trade War Rhetoric Ramps Fear

Monday, stocks rose 1.1% in Europe and 0.9% in Asia and the U.S. on light volume. The VXO fell 13% to close at 17.83. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond rate shot up 4% to close at 1.60. This propelled the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ to close above their 26,000, 2900, and 8000 benchmarks respectively. Apple closed above 210. Precious metals and their miners dropped 1%.

Tuesday, stocks moved up 0.4% in Asia but fell 0.7% in Europe and the U.S. on low volume. Precious metals gained 1% and their miners moved up three times that amount. The VXO moved up 6% to close at 18.81. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond rate fell 2% to close at 1.56. The Dow and NASDAQ dropped below their 26,000 and 8000 benchmarks respectively.

Wednesday, stocks fell 0.5% in Asia, rose 1.2% in Europe, and rose 0.8% in the U.S. on low volume. The VXO fell 6% to close at 17.60. FOMC minutes labeled the rate drop as a mid-cycle adjustment. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond rate moved up 2% to close at 1.61. Dow and NASDAQ again closed above their 26,000 and 8000 benchmarks respectively.

Thursday, stocks fell in Asia 0.6% and in Europe 0.5%, while in the U.S., they closed nearly unchanged on light volume. The NASDAQ again closed back below its 8000 benchmark. Friday, stocks closed unchanged in Asia but fell 0.9% in Europe and 2.1% in the U.S. on strong volume. The VXO shot up 25% to close at 22.89. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond rate plummeted 5% to close at 1.53. Precious metals gained 2% and their miners moved up twice that amount. The Dow and S&P again closed below their 26,000 and 2900 benchmarks respectively as Apple and IBM closed below 210 and 130 respectively. The fireworks were generated by China escalating the trade war, Powell not being dovish enough, and President Trump vowing to respond in kind to China.

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