Greater Fool

Stocks in Asia fell 0.5% and in Europe, just slightly. U.S. stocks fell 0.3% on low volume, while the S&P 500 Index barely held on to the 1500 level. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose to 1.97. Although the VXO rose to move close to 13, fear was nowhere to be found among Facebook enthusiasts as the greater fools bid the stock to nearly 32.5. Tuesday, stocks rose in Asia 1.2%, Europe 0.5% and the U.S. 0.7% on low moderate volume, perhaps anticipating more juice announced tomorrow from the FOMC meeting. Facebook dropped over 5% while the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose to 1.99%.

Wednesday, stocks rose 0.6% in Asia and fell 0.3% in Europe. U.S. stocks fell 0.4% as the FOMC reported no change in their perverse antics and a negative GDP was logged for the fourth quarter. The pundits remain in denial that the economy is sputtering. The S&P 500 Index held on above the 1500 level but just barely on low moderate volume.  and the VXO moved up sharply by nearly 9% to close at 13.79.

Thursday, stocks in Asia took a breather while in Europe they fell sharply, dropping 1%. In the U.S., stocks closed slightly lower on moderate volume. The S&P 500 Index dipped below the 1500 level. For the month, stocks rose 5% while the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose 13% and fear dropped about 30%. So if we project this through the rest of the year, the S&P 500 Index would rise another 70% to a value around 2600. Somehow, I have my doubts. That would take a whole lot of greater fools to make that one happen.

In Asia Friday stocks moved little while in Europe they gained 0.3%. U.S. stocks powered 1% higher on low moderate volume on a first-trading-day-of-the-month pop. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond rate closed over 2% and the VXO dropped over 11%. The big news was the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 14,000 in response to a mixed unemployment report. Facebook dropped over 5% for the week to close below 30, while stocks rose 1%. It’ll be interesting to see what unfolds during the next 19 trading days as the latest political/economic cliff-hanger approaches.

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