Leverage Factor

Here’s an interesting article that suggests that miles driven may be a better indicator of economic health than GDP. In Asia Monday stocks turned up 0.3%, with the Nikkei rising 5%. Stocks in Europe and the U.S. closed flat on very low volume. Tuesday, stocks in Asia dropped 0.3% as the Nikkei fell 1.5% after the Central Bank of Japan offered no indication of further easing other than the gargantuan plan they already have in. Stocks in Europe fell 1.2% and in the U.S. they dropped 1.1% on low volume. VXO shot up 13% while precious metals dropped 1.5% and their miners dropped about twice that amount

Wednesday, stocks in Asia rose 0.3% but they fell in Europe 0.4%. In the U.S., stocks closed down 0.7% on low volume. Dow Jones Industrial average dropped below 15,000, and the VXO spiked upward another 10% to close at 18.46. Thursday, stocks in Asia fell 1.6% while the Nikkei 225 index plunged 6.4% taking it below 13,000. In Europe, stocks closed nearly unchanged. In the U.S. though, stocks surged 1.5% on low volume for no logical reason. Could it be that Thursday is the new Tuesday? The VXO plummeted 11.5% to close at 16.33 and the Dow blasted above the 15,000 level.

Friday, Asian stocks followed in the up-draft from the U.S. the day before, rising 0.9%. Stocks in Europe closed up just slightly while in the U.S. they fell 0.7% on low volume. As with the stock market the VXO retraced about half of the previous day to end the week at 17.26. For the week, the VXO rose nearly 20% while stocks lost about 1%. As mentioned before, when this bubble blows, the leverage will magnify the intensity of decline.

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