Distortion Is Our Business

Monday, stocks rose slightly in Asia, 1% in Europe, and 1.2% in the U.S. on low moderate volume. Fear ebbed as hope springs eternal for more accommodation from the FOMC two days hence. As a result, the VXO fell 6% to close at 15.93. Crude oil continued its slide to close at $43.69. Tuesday, stocks rose in Asia 0.8% but fell in Europe 0.7% and in the U.S. just slightly on low volume. Oil dropped again — this time to $43.19.

Wednesday, stocks rose in Asia 0.6%, in Europe 0.4%, and in the U.S. 1.4% on moderate volume as the word from the FOMC was deemed as dovish overall. Apparently 6 years of zero interest rates is not enough for our supposedly thriving economy. This threw currencies for a loop. The dollar nosedived, precious metals rose 3%, their miners rose 5%, and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 5% to close at 1.95%. Fear abated as the VXO plummeted 13% to close at 14.01 as the Dow Jones Industrial Average blasted to close well above the 18,000 level. Another interesting event of the day was a 5% “flash crash” of the dollar (mostly recovered).

Thursday, stocks rose in Asia 0.9%, and 0.5% in Europe but fell 0.8% in the U.S. on low moderate volume. That dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average below the 18,000 level again. Friday, stocks in Asia moved little, in Europe rose 0.8%, and in the U.S. shot up 1.3% on fairly typical volume for a quadruple-witching day. The VXO plummeted another 9% to close at 12.94 while precious metals and their miners rose about 3%. For the week stocks rose nearly 3% and the VXO fell 23%. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 2.4% to close at 1.93 while oil rose 2% to close at 46.57.